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usd/cad Technicals

Friday, 21 November 2008 14:41:20 GMT

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

usd/cad Fundamentals

Friday, 21 November 2008 21:57:27 GMT

Canadian Dollar Outlook Worsens as Crude Oil Breaks Below $50

By David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst
Central Bank Interest
Central Bank Calendar
EURJPYGBPAUDCADNZDCHF  

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

 ico-clock Current Time - Toronto: 3:22 AM | EST: 3:22 AM | GMT: 8:22 AM


SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING
SSI Positioning

USD/CAD Ratio: 1.87
Trading Forecast: Bearish


Full Article
COT Positioning

CAD:  The 52 week index is at 6 after being at 0 last week.  Before the 2007 low (USDCAD top), Cad lows tended to occur when the composite COT was in the -60,000 range.  


Full Article
FUNDAMENTALS — THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC RELEASES
Most Recent Economic Releases Forecast Previous
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (SEP) -C$1.000 -C$0.833
CAD Leading Indicators (MoM) (OCT) -0.2% -0.3% (R-)
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (SEP) -0.6% -1.5%
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (OCT) -0.6% 0.1%
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) 3.1% 3.4%
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (OCT) 0.0% 0.4%
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (OCT) 1.9% 1.7%


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Technicals - Support and Resistance for CAD
Support and Resistance Levels Interest Rate Outlook
Key Levels Strength Comments Timeframe Target
R4 1.3476 High 61.8% Fibo of 1.6199 - 0.9058 Benchmark 2.25
R3 1.3348 Medium 8/2004 High
R2 1.3020 High 10/28 High 1 Week 2.858
R1 1.2982 Medium Bollinger Band Resistance 1 Month 3.035
S1 1.2430 Medium 61.8% Fibo 1.3020 - 1.1483 3 Month 3.045
S2 1.2224 High 20-Day SMA 6 Month 3.128
S3 1.2000 Medium Psychological Support 9 Month 3.257
S4 1.1554 High 50-Day SMA 1 Year 3.350
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FROM THE CENTRAL BANK
  Central Bank: Bank of Canada
  Current Bias: Dovish
  Current Interest Rate: 2.25%
  Last Change: 10/21/08 cut 25bp
  Next Meeting: 12/09/08  More Dates
Latest Bank of Canada Interest Rate Outlook		  
Central Bank Governor: Mark J. Carney

Current Voting Members: Mark J. Carney, W. Paul Jenkins, Sheryl Kennedy, Pierre Duguay, David Longworth