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eur/usd Technicals

Tuesday, 26 August 2008 14:06:06 GMT

Euro Technical Outlook

By Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist

eur/usd Fundamentals

Thursday, 28 August 2008 00:44:11 GMT

Euro Reversal Stymied By Drop In German CPI

By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist
Central Bank Interest
Central Bank Calendar
EURJPYGBPAUDCADNZDCHF  

Euro Dollar (EUR)

 ico-clock Current Time - Frankfurt: 4:14 AM | EST: 10:14 PM | GMT: 2:14 AM


SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING
SSI Positioning

EUR/USD Ratio: 1.27
Signal: Bearish


Full Article
COT Positioning

EUR: The index remains at 2.  The composite COT is at -41,861, close to the -45,820 that we saw at the May low. 


Full Article
FUNDAMENTALS — THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC RELEASES
Most Recent Economic Releases Forecast Previous
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL) 0.5% 1.5%
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL) 9.2% 8.9%
USD Existing Home Sales (JUL) 4.90M 4.86M
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) 0.8% -2.8% (R-)
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F) -0.5% 1.3%(R-)
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) 1.7% 2.6%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q F) 3.1% 1.8%
EUR German Private Consumption (2Q F) -0.4% -0.4%(R-)


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Technicals - Support and Resistance for EUR
Support and Resistance Levels Interest Rate Outlook
Key Levels Strength Comments Timeframe Target
R4 1.5500 Weak Psychological Resistance Benchmark 4.25
R3 1.5366 Medium 50.0% Fibo 1.6041-1.4700
R2 1.5237 High 200 Day SMA 1 Week 4.408
R1 1.5000 Weak Psychological Resistance 1 Month 4.479
S1 1.4700 High 50.0% Fibo 1.3350-1.6041 3 Month 4.958
S2 1.4384 High 61.8% Fibo 1.3350-1.6041 6 Month 5.152
S3 1.4200 Weak Psychological Support 9 Month 5.224
S4 1.4014 High 10/9/2007 Low 1 Year 5.307
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FROM THE CENTRAL BANK - ECB
 

Central Bank: European Central Bank
  Current Bias: Hawkish
  Current Interest Rate: 4.25%
  Last Change: 07/03/2008 hike 25bp
  Next Meeting: 08/07/2008   More Dates
Latest ECB Interest Rate Outlook

Central Bank Governor: Jean Claude Trichet

Current Voting Members: Lucas D. Papademos
Guy Quaden, Axel A. Weber, Nicholas Garganas, Miguel Frenandez Ordonez, Christian Noyer, John Hurley, Mario Draghi, Yves Mersch, Nout Wellink, Klaus Liebscher, Vitor Manuel Ribeiro Constancio, Marko Kranjec, Erkki Liikanen.
FROM THE CENTRAL BANK - FEDERAL RESERVE

Central Bank: Federal Reserve Bank
  Current Bias: Dovish
  Current Interest Rate: 2.00%
  Last Change: 04/30/2008 cut 25bp
  Next Meeting: 08/05/2008  More Dates
Latest Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook

 **The Dove / Hawk Scale for the Federal Reserve is particularly useful because it lets you know whether recent comments by Fed officials are in line with their general bias or represents a shift in tone

Central Bank Governor: Ben S. Bernanke (Moderate)

Current Voting Members: Timothy F. Geithner (Moderate / Dove), Richard W. Fisher (Hawk), Donald L. Kohn (Moderate), Randall S. Kroszner (Moderate), Frederic S. Mishkin (Dove), Sandra Pianalto (Moderate), Charles I. Plosser (Hawk), Gary H. Stern (Moderate), Kevin M. Warsh (Dove), Elizabeth A. Duke**

**New member of the Board of Governors, 8/5/08

Alternate Voting Members: Charles L. Evans (Moderate), Jeffrey M. Lacker (Hawk), Dennis P. Lockhart (Moderate), Janet L. Yellen (Dove), Christine M. Cumming (Moderate)