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Swiss Franc Technicals and Fundamentals Forecast Declines

Tuesday, 02 September 2008 23:44:23 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist and David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

USDCHF Long-Term Technical Forecast

USDCHF 09.02.08 10

The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (but as the inverse). A drop below .9647 would complete wave 5 that began at 1.3285. Although not shown, momentum indicators made an extreme with price at .9647. Again, major turns almost always occur when indicators diverge from price. There is trendline resistance at near 1.15 this month and former support at 1.1286 should also provide resistance (if needed).   

USDCHF Fundamental Outlook/Interest Rate Forecast

USDCHF 09.02.08 11

USDCHF 09.02.08 12

A clear correction in Swiss National Bank interest rate forecasts has left markets expecting 10bp of SNB rate cuts in the coming year—removing a key pillar of support for the low-yielding currency. All the while, markets boosted their expectations for the future of US Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and Credit Suisse figures predict that the USDCHF interest rate differential will improve by 72 basis points through the coming year. If this proves true, we could see the US dollar strengthen further against the Swiss Franc.

USDCHF Forex Sentiment Outlook

Swiss Franc Could Fall (USDCHF Could Rally) Further Before Forex Positioning Extreme

 

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