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Currency Traders Accurately Signal Japanese Yen Gains

Thursday, 21 August 2008 14:28:40 GMT

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst and Antonio Sousa, Chief Strategist

USD/JPY Ratio: -1.20
Signal: Bullish

Currency Last Week Present* % Long % Change in Positions Outstanding Signal
USDJPY -1.27 1.15 54% -16.79% Bearish

SSI5_8-21

USDJPY – Our forex positioning data shows that USDJPY traders flipped to net-long territory for the first time in over a month—accurately signaling a USDJPY breakdown. The USDJPY SSI Ratio currently stands at 1.15 as 54 percent of currency traders are long, but yesterday morning the ratio actually stood at -1.37. Long positions in the USDJPY jumped 41 percent overnight, and a continuation in buying in the USDJPY would clearly suggest that we may see further weakness in the US dollar against the Japanese Yen. Indeed, if we see the USDJPY SSI ratio creep back towards +2.0, it would be a strong signal to sell the forex pair and would forecast further losses. Discuss your own forecasts for the USDJPY in our forex forum.

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